Increase in materials, tension on energy, uncertainties on rates: the government is warning of the first effects of the conflict in the Middle East on housing production.
Publi-Information 
THE conflict in the Middle East is already having an impact on the price of construction materials and could raise credit rates, estimates Housing Minister Vincent Jeanbrun, which risks complicating the relaunch of the construction of new housing.
Cost increases already visible on construction sites
There war in the Middle East is already acting as an external shock to the sector. For the Minister of Housing, Vincent Jeanbrunit constitutes “an extremely impactful exogenous factor for housing production“. Because, in fact, on the ground, the effects are materializing quickly. The prices of materials are rising, with marked increases on certain strategic products: up to + 35% for bituminous membranes used in waterproofing, and + 20% for plastics such as PVC or certain insulators, according to the French Building Federation.
On the business side, the pressure is becoming widespread. According to CAPEB, 65% of artisans have been informed of price increases by their suppliers, while 56% are already experiencing theimpact of the increase in non-road diesel.
Faced with these tensions, the minister wishes to accelerate the establishment of a materials price observatoryrequested for a long time by the profession, in order to distinguish justified increases from possible windfall effects.
A weakened economic equation to achieve the objectives
Beyond the costs, it is the overall balance of the sector that could be affected. The conflict could also weigh on interest rates, forcing players to adapt to absorb this new shock.
A major issue as the government maintains its ambitions. Presented in January by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Vincent Jeanbrun, the “Housing Recovery” plan aims to build two million homes by 2030or 400,000 per year, including 125,000 social housing units starting this year.
In order to support this trajectory, several levers have been activated:
– tax incentives for individual investors;
– Support from social landlords;
– And, finally, simplification measures.
It remains to be seen whether these measures will be sufficient to offset the effects of an increasingly restrictive international context.
