The building industry, driven by the construction of new housing, confirms its forecasts for ending the crisis in 2026 but remains cautious, particularly due to conflicts in the Middle East, as indicated by the FFB.
Driven by favorable budgetary measures, the new housing begins a rebound in 2026with activity clearly increasing. An encouraging dynamic which, however, is part of an environment that is still uncertain for the entire sector, as noted Olivier Salleron, president of the FFBduring the press conference of the French Building Federation from this Tuesday March 17, 2026.
Forecasts for 2026: a recovery reassessed upwards
Carried by the persistent dynamism of the diffuse individualas well as through support measures such as the reduction of the RLS and the “Jeanbrun” system, the sector foresees a more marked restart of real estate development from this year. Nearly 15,000 additional housing could thus be started compared to projections established at the end of 2025, bringing the total to 308,000 units in 2026. A revision which results in an expected increase in the production of new housing of 11.2%, compared to 9.5% initially anticipated.
At the end of January 2026, the construction starts continue their clear accelerationat + 24.5%, driven by both the individual and collective segments. On the other hand, authorizations show a slowdown (+10.1%), penalized by collective housing (+5.9%), while individual housing remains more dynamic, with an increase of more than 15%. This divergence is explained in particular by the evolution of sales: in 2025, those of developers decline by 6.9%, when diffuse individual sales continue to recover, with an increase of around 10% over three rolling months.
New non-residential properties also present mixed signals. Over the period from November 2025 to January 2026, surface areas started increased by 8.3%, supported in particular by administrative buildings (+ 32.8%), but also by hotels, agricultural premises and shops, up 10 to 20%. Conversely, authorized surface areas fell by 15.3%, affected in particular by the decline in industrial buildings (-37.3%), agricultural premises (-9.0%) and offices (-7.8%).
In a context still marked by economic uncertainties, the FFB nevertheless anticipates a significant rebound in new housing in 2026, with some 403,000 building permits issued and 308,000 construction starts expected. Forecasts were revised upwards following the adoption of the finance law, several provisions of which are considered favorable to the sector, as highlighted Olivier Salleron, here in photo, during the press conference. © Laure Pophillat
On the side ofimprovement-maintenance activitythe trend is reversing after several years of growth: in 2025, it will fall by 1.1% at constant prices, both in housing and non-residential, including energy renovation. Between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025, the overall decline in production continues (-1.4%), driven by housing (-1.7%), while non-residential limits the decline (-0.3%), despite an acceleration in energy renovation work. The outlook for the start of 2026 remains downward, reflecting a still uncertain climate for the sector.
Budget 2026: reinforced levers to support housing
The 2026 budget consolidates several structuring levers:
– maintaining the zero-rate loan, extended in 2025;
– The renewal of the envelope dedicated to MaPrimeRénov’, increased to 3.6 billion euros;
– L’reduction in the contribution of social landlords under the solidarity rent reductionreduced from 1.3 billion to 900 million euros;
– And, finally, the implementation of the so-called “Jeanbrun” system, aimed at encouraging private rental investment.
Employment and profitability: mixed signals for the sector
On the employment front, data from Dares and INSEE reflect a slowing of the deterioration. Between the fourth quarters of 2024 and 2025, the number of construction workers fell by 1.2%, representing a loss of 14,900 positions. Temporary work follows a comparable trend, with a decline of 2.6% in full-time equivalent, corresponding to 2,300 fewer FTEs.
In total, the sector recorded a reduction of 17,200 jobs (excluding self-employed). Over the whole of 2025, the drop slightly exceeds 20,000 positions, including around 18,000 employees. However, the short-term outlook appears more reassuring: managers of companies with more than ten employees express relative confidence in the stability of their workforce in the months to come. © Freepik
At the same time, cash flow perception is improving in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite payment deadlines remaining high among public customers. In this context, the sector’s operating margin rate nevertheless continues to erode, falling by 0.2 points in 2025, under the persistent effect of the gap between the increase in costs and that of prices.
Forecasts under tension: the shadow of conflicts in the Middle East
The selected scenario already integrates certain tensions observed since the summer of 2025, starting with the sharp rise in the price of copper, the impact of which has direct repercussions on many building products. In France, ex-factory prices of copper semi-finished products have jumped by almost 40% since August 2025, weighing on production costs.
On the other hand, at this stage, the FFB does not include any broader deterioration linked to geopolitical tensions crossing the Middle East. Two factors explain this caution. On the one hand, no significant disruption in supply has been observed in Europe, unlike the situation observed following the health crisis. On the other hand, tensions mainly relate to oil and its derivatives. If the issue is major on a macroeconomic scale, it remains, for the construction sectorless critical than that of gas – and therefore electricity –, determining for the production of materials such as steel, aluminum, cement and even glass.
European dependence on gas from the Persian Gulf remains limited, while prices, although increasing recently, remain far from the exceptional levels reached in 2022. © Ian Timberlake / AFP
It remains a major point of attention, that of the indirect impact of these crises on the confidence of economic actors, their investment decisions, as well as on the evolution of inflation and financing conditions. The recent rise in bond rates, particularly in France, could thus weigh on the real estate loan market.
In this still uncertain context, the FFB has chosen not to include these uncertainties in its forecasts at this stage, while warning that a lasting conflict could lead to a downward revision of its outlook in the coming weeks. Faced with these uncertainties, the message sent to businesses is unequivocal: securing operations requires, more than ever, market indexation.
2026: social dialogue relaunched in construction
Beyond the prospects for recovery, the year 2026 marks a structuring turning point for the construction sector with the relaunch of social dialogue within the sector.
After a year of 2025 dedicated to the establishment of the framework – publication of representativeness orders and installation of negotiating bodies – the discussions are now entering an operational phase. A first agreement was thus signed on January 19, relating to the salaries of building engineers and managers. In the process, a new sequence of negotiations opened in mid-February, with a dense program for 2026: renovation of collective agreements, training, welfare, employment of seniors and even employee savings.
After more than six years of blockage, this resumption of social dialogue constitutes a notable step forward welcomed by the profession, which sees it as an essential lever for structuring and attractiveness for the sector.
REP: a simplification implemented, welcomed by the FFB
The in-depth simplification of EPR is largely part of the orientations defended by the FFBjoined by several other professional organizations. Five structuring developments emerge. First, the strengthening of the territorial network of collection points, in order to offer local solutions, more accessible and better adapted to the constraints of businesses. Then, the refocusing of the system on the sectors where the massification and recycling issues remain the most complex, such as plastics, joinery, mineral wools and even waterproofing membranes.
The reform also introduces better visibility on eco-contributions, with a nine-month notice period before any changes to the scales, allowing companies to anticipate and integrate these costs into their operations. It also provides for the creation of a fund dedicated to the fight against illegal dumping, as well as an overhaul of the governance of the REP PMCB sector, with a clear objective: to guarantee that each contribution concretely benefits the improvement of collection, recycling and reuse.
