Real estate market for the late 2024: growing and growing sales, boom new buildings thanks to the purchasing earthquake

Increase in the supply and growth of new buildings

The data of the real estate market observatory (OMI) of the Revenue Agency highlight a generalized growth in all areas of the country, with more marked variations in the South (+10.7%) and in the North East (+9.0%).

One of the most relevant aspects was the Boom of the sale of new buildingswho are increased by almost 46% Compared to the same quarter of the previous year:

• The share of new homes on the total sales has passed since 7.7% to 12.8%.
• About 27,800 new houses were sold in the IV Trips 2024, against the 19,000 of the IV quarter 2023.
• The increase is largely attributable to Tax incentives of the Sismabonus Purchaseswhich favored real estate operations of demolition and reconstruction with improvement of seismic safety.

The existing housing segment has recorded a more contained increase, equal to 3.6%.

The role of mortgages and the drop in interest rates

The mortgage market also played an important role. Although the share of purchases with a mortgage loan remained above the 40%there was a drop compared to the previous quarters. However, the capital paid for real estate purchases has risen to Almost 12 billion euroswith an increase in Over 2 billion compared to the same period of 2023.

A positive fact for the borrowers was the drop in the average rate of interest on mortgageswhich went down to 3.3% in the IV quarter 2024, compared to the 4.5% of the previous year. This has favored access to credit and encouraged the sales, especially for the first homewhich represents about the 71% of purchases. Here is a synthesis of the key data:

• Share of purchases with mortgage: 41.5%.
• Initial average interest rate: 3.3% (down 120 basis points compared to the IV quarter 2023).
• Purchase share with first home facilitation: 71%.

Trend in large cities: Rome and Milan drip the market

In eight main Italian citiesthe sales have grown in almost all urban areas, with the exception of Naples, which recorded a decline in the1.9%. The cities with the greatest growth have been:

• Rome: +9.6%, with over 10,000 purchased homes.
• Milan: +9.5%, with a significant increase in newly built homes (23% of the total sold).
• Turin, Genoa and Bologna: growth greater than 8%.
• Naples: The only big city falling, with -1.9% of transactions.

In particular:

• TO Romethe share of purchases with mortgage has exceeded the 50%with a strong incidence of the first home concessions (85% of transactions).
• TO Milanthere has been the highest rate of sale of new buildings (23% of the market).
• Napleson the other hand, saw a slowdown, with less purchases than the previous year.

The lease market: contrasting trends between Rome and Milan

On the leases front, the IV Triptre 2024 showed a slight drop in the number of registered contracts (-0.3% compared to the IV quarter 2023), although the total annual fee has increased 3.7%.
The situation was very different in the two main Italian cities:

• Rome: strong drop in new lease contracts (-7.2%)with a consequent slight decrease also of the annual canons (-0.9%). In general in contraction, especially for subsidized contracts (-9%).
• Milan: opposite trend, with an increase in 5.5% in the number of housing lived and an increase in the canons of 6.9%. In general, strong growth in agreed fee leases (+97.6%).

Perspectives for 2025

The forecasts for the first quarter 2025 They remain optimistic, with expectations of price stability and a possible consolidation of the growth trend. However, the End of the Sismabonus Purchases It could lead to a slight contraction of the demand for new buildings in the coming months.
The key trends to be monitored include:

• THE’Interest rates trendwhich could influence access to mortgages.
• There Question of new homeswhich recorded a peak thanks to the incentives.
• There Location market dynamicsespecially in large cities.