In recent years, construction bonuses have represented a fundamental driver for the construction sector and for the Italian economy. However, according to a recent survey conducted by Nomisma on behalf of the National Confederation of Crafts and Small and Medium Enterprises (CNA), the introduction of a crackdown on these incentives could have significant consequences.
The new limit, which provides for a reduced rate of 36% and a maximum ceiling of 48,000 euros, could cause a drastic reduction in demand for renovation work.
What will be the consequences of this decision for Italian families and for the country’s economy? How much will it affect the job market and energy saving?
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A contraction in demand for restructuring: 97.3 billion at risk
According to data collected by Nomisma, the reduction of building bonuses would lead around 3.5 million Italian families to give up planned renovation works, out of a total of 10 million affected families.
This would mean a “missed question” for an estimated value of 97.3 billion euros in the next three years. The economic loss would not stop there: the renovations generated by this demand would have activated approximately 119.7 billion in added value for the construction sector and would have supported 2.085 million jobs.
In addition to the direct economic loss, the Nomisma report also highlights the social and environmental “damage” resulting from the reduction of construction bonuses.
Many renovation projects, in fact, do not only concern the aesthetic improvement of homes, but include interventions aimed at eliminating architectural barriers, thus improving accessibility for people with disabilities or mobility difficulties. The contraction of bonuses, therefore, would lead to a decrease in these interventions, with repercussions on the social value of buildings and the inclusiveness of urban spaces.
Furthermore, the environmental impact would be significant: a reduction in energy efficiency interventions would lead to an increase in energy consumption, with a consequent growth in CO₂ emissions and a worsening of air quality. The estimated lack of energy savings translates into a deficit of 2,300 GWh, with a further economic cost for families, who would face higher bills and lower energy savings in the long term.
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The scenario of a total elimination of building bonuses
The report also explores an even more dramatic scenario: the total elimination of building bonuses. In this case, an additional 2.56 million households are expected to forgo renovation projects, dramatically increasing the scale of the negative impact on the construction sector.
If the legislation were to actually completely cancel these incentives, the repercussions would be serious for the Italian economy, for companies in the sector and for the related jobs related to construction.
A total elimination of the bonuses would lead to a contraction not only of residential renovations, but also of those interventions that aim to improve the energy sustainability of buildings, preventing the country from reaching the energy efficiency objectives set at European level. Construction companies, especially small artisan businesses, could face a significant drop in demand, putting their very survival at risk.
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Estimates for 2025: a construction sector in sharp decline
CNA estimates that, by 2025, the effect of the tightening of construction bonuses will lead to a drastic contraction of the renovation market, with a reduction of around 50% compared to the period 2012-2019, when the bonuses had helped to support the entire sector. According to forecasts, spending on building works should return to 2011 levels, with overall investments of around 14 billion euros. This decline could cause a loss of added value amounting to 17 billion euros and the failure to create 300,000 jobs, worsening the country’s employment and social situation.
In addition to the economic effects, it is estimated that this contraction will have consequences on the overall environmental value: missed energy savings are estimated at 2,300 GWh and lower savings on bills for families, quantified at approximately 409 million euros. The impact will therefore be on multiple levels, penalizing not only the construction sector, but also consumers and the environment.
