The Italian real estate sector shows clear signs of recovery, as highlighted by “Conjunctural survey on the housing market in Italy”hosted by Bank of Italy in collaboration with Tecnoborsa And the Revenue Agency.
The survey, based on a sample of over 1,400 real estate agencies, captures a quarter characterized by an increase in mediated transactions, easier access to mortgages and continuous growth in rents. These data paint an interesting picture for those working in the real estate sector and for investors.
But what are the main dynamics that are emerging and what to expect in the near future?
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House prices: a picture of stability
One of the most relevant aspects that emerged from the survey is the stability of housing prices. The 72.3% of real estate agents respondents reported that prices remained unchanged in the third quarter of 2024.
At the same time, the share of those reporting discounts fell, from 21.6% to 15.3%.
Although limited, a portion of operators, equal to 12.4%, showed an increase in prices compared to the previous quarter, a sign that the market is finding a new balance.
The third quarter of 2024 saw an increase in transactions concluded through intermediaries, a sign of more active demand. This is also reflected in the reduction of average discount applied compared to the initial pricedropped to 7.8%the lowest level ever recorded since the survey began.
As regards sales times, the average time between the assignment of the assignment and the conclusion of the sale remained almost stable at 5.7 monthsindicating a market in which supply and demand meet with greater fluidity.
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Effects of the “Save-Home” decree on the real estate market
The “Save-Home” Decreepassed into law in July 2024, is starting to show its effects on the Italian real estate market. The rules introduced aim to simplify the bureaucratic burdens relating to smaller-scale building interventions, thus encouraging the supply of housing.
According to the survey, the balance among real estate agents who report a positive impact of the decree on supply is 16 percentage pointsa figure that highlights the role of this measure in encouraging greater availability of properties on the market. However, the direct effect on demand appears more limited, with a positive balance of only 10 percentage points.
Regarding the impact on prices, the 22% of agents expects an increase, while only 6% expects a decrease. This suggests that, although the decree is helping to stabilize the market, it could also favor a slight increase in prices, especially in areas where supply remains limited.
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Transaction trends and market dynamics
In the third quarter of 2024, the82.4% of real estate agencies declared that it had concluded at least one transaction, remaining in line with the average levels recorded in post-pandemic periods. This data reflects a relative stability of the market, but does not fail to highlight some critical issues.
The net balance among operators reporting an increase or reduction in intermediate transactions compared to the same period in 2023 remained negative, standing at -22 percentage pointsalthough a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter (-24 points).
These numbers suggest that, despite a gradually recovering demand and greater ease of access to mortgages, the market has not yet reached sufficient levels of activity to completely reverse the negative trend.
The stability in supply and the relatively rapid sales times, however, indicate that the sector could enter a more favorable phase in the medium term, especially in the Central-Southern regions, where signs of improvement in demand are more evident.
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Access to mortgages: an increasingly less significant obstacle
Another positive aspect highlighted by the survey is the reduction in difficulties in obtaining a mortgage, one of the main causes that in the past led to the cessation of sales assignments.
The share of operators reporting this problem has fallen to 20%a significant decline compared to 34% recorded in the same period of 2023. Furthermore, the percentage of purchases financed with a mortgage increased, going from 61% to 64% compared to the previous survey.
This trend reflects greater trust on the part of banking institutions and a greater ability to access credit on the part of buyers.
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Rental fees: constant increases in a dynamic market
The rental segment continues to record significant increases. In the third quarter of 2024, the 51% of real estate agents reported an increase in rents, a growth of 2 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
Furthermore, forecasts for the following quarter indicate further increases, with the 35% of agencies which anticipates an increase in rents compared to only 7% which foresees a decrease.
This trend highlights strong demand, probably driven by demographic changes and an increasing difficulty in accessing property for some segments of the population.
