The issue of the 110% Superbonus continues to dominate the economic and political debate in Italy, with the latest Enea survey signaling an escalation in costs well beyond initial expectations.
While the Superbonus bill is getting dangerously close to the threshold of 114 billion euros, concerns are growing about the long-term implications on the state budget, already highlighted by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. To further complicate the picture, there are the challenges posed by the new European directive on “green” housing, which according to estimates by Unimpresa, could represent an additional cost of up to 270 billion euros for Italy.
This situation presents the country with a double challenge: managing the enormous financial burden of the Superbonus and at the same time preparing for a massive energy requalification work on the buildings to comply with the new EU standards.
The economic impact of the 110% Superbonus
The 110% Superbonus represented a revolutionary measure introduced to stimulate the energy requalification of Italian buildings, with the aim of promoting energy efficiency and the reduction of emissions. However, the latest update provided by Enea reveals that the cost of this measure has exceeded 114 billion euros, with projections that could see the state budget burdened by a figure close to 160 billion euros. An impressive sum that has raised concerns both in the government and among citizens, given the extent of the financial commitment required.
In February, works for a total of 104.4 billion euros were eligible for deduction, involving 480,815 buildings, including 8 castles, a figure that underlines the wide range of application of the Superbonus. Lombardy stood out as the region that benefited most from these deductions, with a commitment of 21.6 billion euros, highlighting an uneven territorial distribution of the use of the measure.
The weight of this incentive on the state budget raises questions regarding the long-term financial sustainability of such incentive policies, especially in an already complex national and international economic context.
The new Green Directive and the future of energy efficiency
In parallel with the challenges posed by the Superbonus, Italy is facing another significant economic and infrastructural challenge linked to the new European directive on “green” homes. According to estimates provided by Unimpresa, the energy requalification necessary to adapt approximately 7.6 million Italian properties up to standard provided for by the directive could be costly up to 270 billion euros. This scenario places Italy faced with an obligation for large-scale renovation, with the aim of reducing energy consumption and improving the environmental sustainability of buildings.
The majority of Italian properties, built before the Second World War, are found in the lowest energy classes, F and G, which represent over 61% of the total. This situation makes Italy particularly exposed to the impacts of the directive, which requires a reduction in energy consumption in homes by 16% by 2030 and 22% by 2035, in addition to the goal of zero emissions for new properties from 2030.
Adaptation to these requirements will result in an estimated average expense per property of approximately 35,000 euros, with a range that varies between 20,000 and 55,000 euros. Considering the enormous number of buildings involved, an overall expenditure borne by private individuals is estimated at around 266.7 billion euros over the next 20 years.
These data highlight the need for a structured action plan and adequate financial support to allow Italian real estate to respond effectively to the new challenges posed by the European Union in terms of sustainability and energy efficiency.