Superbonus and its consequences on the Italian budget in the 2024 DEF


Emma Potter

The last session of the Council of Ministers saw the approval of the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) which outlines the guidelines for the growth and management of public debt in the coming years.

This document, essential for outlining the country's economic strategy, presents conservative GDP estimates and debt projections which suggest a change of direction compared to previous forecasts.

With the aim of navigating the challenges posed by evolving European regulations and the implications of measures such as the superbonus, the DEF presents itself as a compass for Italy's fiscal future, seeking a balance between economic stimulus and debt sustainability.

Economic projections and priorities

The revision of the economic forecasts for 2024 and subsequent years reveals a cautious but optimistic attitude of the Italian government. GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2024, marking a slight slowdown compared to the estimate of +1.2% announced in the Nadef. However, projections for the public debt indicate an upward trend, with an increase from 137.8% in 2024 to 139.8% in 2026deviating from the previously expected reduction path.

This upward revision reflects the complexity of the current economic context, influenced by factors such as the superbonus and its financial repercussions.

At the same time, the country's net debt shows a trajectory of gradual reduction, from 4.3% of GDP in 2024 to 2.2% in 2027, a sign of a policy aimed at fiscal responsibility. The GDP growth forecasts for the years after 2024, although modest, confirm the government's confidence in a sustainable economic recovery in the medium term.

The weight of the Superbonus on the accounts

The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, underlined how the Superbonus has significantly affected the country's debt profile, anticipating an increase in public debt in the coming years due to the charges resulting from this measure.

Despite this, a downward trend in debt is expected post-2026, a positive sign that reflects expectations of prudent fiscal management in the long term. Giorgetti also highlighted the government's desire to present the new DEF before the September deadline, integrating the technical data provided by the EU and adapting the fiscal framework to the new European budget rules.

The emphasis placed on the superbonus by the minister does not hide the critical issues linked to its implementation, but also represents a commitment towards greater fiscal discipline, with an eye towards reducing spending and maintaining incentives, such as decontribution, considered essential to support the economy.

Tax reforms and innovations

With a view to strengthening legal certainty and simplifying the tax system, the Deputy Minister of Economy, Maurizio Leo, announced the approval of an important draft legislative decree. This provision, aimed at rationalizing the registration tax, inheritance and gift taxes, and other indirect taxes, aims to significantly simplify the interaction between citizens and tax administration.

The proposed changes, which include the revision of the rules on trusts and the transfer of family businesses, promise to introduce greater clarity and efficiency into the system, benefiting both families and Italian businesses.

Furthermore, Deputy Minister Leo underlined that the current provision does not directly address the issue of fuel price increases, focusing instead on a broader tax reform that aims to stabilize the Italian economy through legal certainty and bureaucratic simplification.

These reforms represent a step forward towards a fairer and more transparent tax system, in line with the country's needs for modernization and economic growth.