The first quarter of 2026 turned out to be even worse than the previous ones for real estate developers, hit by the economic consequences of the war in the Middle East, indicates the FPI.
Publi-Information 
On paper, all the elements finally seem to come together for revive the housing market : the subject has regained a central place in the political agenda, supported in particular by the Housing Recovery bill, while the status of the private landlord, long awaited by the sector, is starting to produce its first effects. On the demand side, the observation is just as clear: the French have not turned the page on property, and the desire to buy remains firmly anchored.
But behind these green lights, a factor is blocking all dynamics: the armed conflict in the Middle East, which continues, and continues to fuel the rise in energy costs, to weigh on rates and to maintain a climate of anxiety among households. A single lock, but sufficient to neutralize all the recovery conditions.
“We live in a day without end: with each crisis, the new housing market falls to a lower level than the previous one. However, all the levers for a recovery are today united: a Housing Recovery bill in preparation, a private landlord status which is being established. But none will be able to produce its effects as long as the war in the Middle East lasts” explains Pascal Boulanger, the president of the FPI during a press conference on May 12, 2026. © Anne-Sandrine Di Girolamo
A new home market under pressure in the face of a tense economic and geopolitical climate
On the side of the Federation of Real Estate Developersthe observation is clear: the war in the Middle East acts as an aggravating factor in an already fragile market. It fuels tensions over energy costs, increases the cost of construction materials and fuels a general climate of anxiety which slows down purchasing decisions.
In this context, Didier Bellier-Ganière, general delegate of the FPIemphasizes that the emerging momentum observed recently has completely run out of steam: “housing had regained its place on the political agenda” but “the war in the Middle East has shattered all trembling among buyers“. The conflict “increases tensions on the cost of energy, on the cost of materials, on inflation (…) and all these elements maintain and fuel a climate of anxiety” Who “does not rhyme with desire for purchase and housing“, he continues.
Sales in free fall and social landlords under constraint
The figures confirm this deterioration. In the first quarter of 2026, reservations for new housing made by FPI members fell by 14% over one year, to reach only 19,050 housing units, a historically low level. The decline is particularly marked among social landlords, whose purchases plunged by 35%, even though they had until then largely supported the market during the crisis period. “Social landlords have played the game but they do not have sufficient funds of their own“, deplores Pascal Boulanger.
THE individuals accessing property are also reducing their acquisitions, with a drop of 18% over one year. Only therental investment shows progressup 23%, driven by just over 550 additional homes sold. Didier Bellier-Ganière sees it “an effect of the status of the private lessor“, but “difficult to quantify“.
For Pascal Boulanger, the situation remains extremely worrying – the figures for early 2026 are still below those for 2025: the put on sale like reservations reach levels never before observed, confirming a persistent new crisis. “It’s getting worse and worse“, laments Pascal Boulanger. figures for homes put up for sale and reservations don’t havenever been so low“.
An “atypical” positive signal
Despite this overall negative picture, one piece of data stands out, that of building permits, which recorded an increase of 33% in March over one month. A progression considered difficult to interpret by professionals in the sector. “We don’t have a completely rational explanation.“, underlines the president of the FPI, for whom “this increase is atypical“.”There is always a voucher for authorizations in the month of municipal elections, but this one is much more important” than previously, added Didier Bellier-Ganière.
For promoters, this isolated signal is not enough to reverse a major trend. After three years of crisis in new constructionthe sector hoped for stabilization. Unfortunately, on the contrary, he notes a worsening of the situation, summed up bluntly by the professionals themselves: “it’s getting worse and worse“.
