Growing GDP and Superbonuses: how bonuses are shaping the Italian economy


Emma Potter

Good news from the Italian economy. According to the latest forecasts from the Confindustria Study Center, the expected growth of Italian GDP is 0.9%.

In particular, the Superbonus, introduced as an incentive for the construction sector, emerges as a significant driver of this growth, with profound implications for both the economy and the urban fabric of the country.

Let's analyze the numbers from the Confindustria Study Center.

The economic impact of the Superbonus on GDP

The Superbonus, a fiscal measure focused on investments in construction and renovations, has had a decisive impact on Italian GDP. In the period 2021-2024, investments linked to the Superbonus contributed with a cumulative increase of 2.4 percentage points to GDP, compared to initial forecasts.

This increase is particularly significant in the residential construction sector, where investments grew by 13%, reaching an impressive 25.4% if we isolate only investments in housing.

These data not only confirm the effectiveness of the Superbonus as a lever for economic growth, but also underline its role in renewing the urban landscape and improving the energy efficiency of Italian homes.

However, the latest update of the forecast report also revised the figures upwards deficit estimates for 2024, bringing them to 4.4% of GDP, a significant increase compared to previous forecasts. This revision reflects several key dynamics, including the remodulation of the measures envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and the reclassification of Superbonus credits as “non-payable” starting from 2024.

Another factor that contributed to this revision is the expected decline in nominal GDP, which saw a reduction in estimates of 1.4 percentage points for 2024.

Despite these obstacles, an improvement in the deficit is expected for the two-year period 2024-2025, thanks also to a drop in interest rates on Italian government bonds, with the 10-year BTP standing at 3.7% compared to 4.5%. previous.

Inflation dynamics in the two-year period 2024-2025

According to the Confindustria Study Center, the expected inflation rate for 2024 will moderate significantly, reaching 1.7%, a marked decrease compared to 5.6% in 2023. This slowdown in inflation is particularly relevant for policy monetary and for the purchasing power of citizens.

For 2025, forecasts indicate a slight increase in inflation to 1.8%, reflecting a stabilization of the economy in a context of moderate growth.

These data suggest effective control of price volatility in the medium term, which is essential for economic planning and consumer confidence.