The French real estate market will recover in 2026, but the recovery remains fragile. In the former, sales are progressing, while the rise in rates and the wait-and-see attitude of households are slowing down the dynamic.
After several particularly difficult years, the old market gradually regains color. Indeed, according to the SeLoger-Best Agents screeningssome 955,000 transactions could be recorded in 2026, a slightly more optimistic estimate than that of the National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim), which for its part expects 920,000 sales.
The restart, however, remains far from being sufficiently solid to speak of a real reversal of the cycle. “Buyers are still there and the market is not blocked, but the recovery is plateauing“, summarizes Thomas Lefebvre, the vice-president in charge of data of the SeLoger group.
Rates that break the dynamic
THE main area of concern now concerns real estate credit. While the stabilization of rates had helped to gradually revive demand, they started to rise again in a particularly tense geopolitical context. Thomas Lefebvre nevertheless considers that the old market remains “solid“However, this resistance is not enough to dispel concerns: household confidence remains.”degraded“, even though their capacity to finance a real estate purchase remains highly dependent on the rate level.
For Loïc Cantin, the president of Fnaim, the observation is more severe: the “market is convalescent, on the verge of relapse and oriented towards wait-and-see behavior“, he told AFP. A situation which could continue with the approach of the presidential election next spring. The leader of Fnaim believes that this deadline risks pushing some households to postpone their projects, while waiting for better visibility on the economic and fiscal environment.
Added to this is the prospect of a new increase in key rates from the European Central Bank. According to Loïc Cantin, this rise could “hitting the rediscovered dynamic head on“.
Prices still too high for many households
However, the problem is not limited to the cost of credit. For Olivier Descamps, the general director of IAD France, the main obstacle remains the gap between the level of real estate prices and the financial capacities of buyers. In other words, even when households regain slightly greater borrowing capacity, prices remain high enough to limit the number of feasible projects.
THE buyers are also more attentive to the quality of goods and the risks to which they could be exposed. The consequences of climate change are beginning to weigh more heavily on purchasing decisions, whether it concerns episodes of extreme heat, floods or even the risks linked to certain territories.
This development could gradually modify the selection criteria of buyers and accentuate the value gaps between housing depending on their location and exposure to risks.
The new remains in a critical situation
If theold benefits from a gradual recoveryHowever, new housing remains the main weak point of the market. Real estate professionals paint a particularly gloomy picture, describing a situation “difficult, even catastrophic“. The problem is particularly linked to thegap which has widened in recent years between the cost of producing housing and the financial capacities of households.
Since 2020, construction costs have increased by around 25%, while household borrowing capacity has decreased by around 7%. This equation makes the launch of new programs and access to property particularly difficult for some households.
New housing remains the main weak point in the real estate market, faced with sharply rising construction costs and reduced borrowing capacity for households. © Laure Pophillat
Professionals also expect more from the Jeanbrun tax system, intended to relaunch rental investment. For now, its initial effects are considered too limited to reverse the trend.
“A real desire to buy“
Despite these many negative signals, real estate demand has not disappeared. It is even one of the main elements which allows professionals to remain relatively confident about the former: there is a “chain of bad news (…) but there is a real desire to buy, to find accommodation“, underlines Guillaume Martinaud, the president of Orpi France. This demand allows the market to continue to operate, even if decisions are now made with more caution. Buyers remain present, but they have less financial margin and take more time before committing.
THE rental market also concentrates a large part of the difficulties. It appears as the main “victim” current imbalances. In many cities, the supply of available housing remains extremely reduced while rents are starting to rise again. This tension on rental paradoxically maintains the need to invest as well as build more, even though economic and financial conditions complicate the creation of these new housing units.
After the rebound recorded since 2025, professionals are approaching the future with caution. THE old market now has a sufficiently large demand base to avoid a new collapse, but several factors can still halt its progress.
The scenario of a clear and lasting recovery therefore remains to be confirmed. For the moment, the French real estate market seems above all to have left the phase of acute crisis to enter a period of convalescence… with the risk, always present, of seeing the recovery run out of steam.
